According to a report in Drinks Trade, grapes could be left on the vine for the 2023 vintage, with a slump in exports driving an oversupply problem in the industry.
One of the big drivers of this challenge has been the 150-200% import taxes (and quasi bans) levied on Australian producers by Chinese authorities, which has taken Australian wine exports to China from a $1.2b market in 2019 to just $196 million in 2022. Combine that with a large 2021 and average 2022 vintage, and it's little wonder that stocks are rising fast (as the infographic below shows).
The good news is that, as the Drinks Trade article suggests, thawing relations with China might help reopen that market to Australia. And who knows, maybe we will end up with a shortage in 2-3 years time?